Partial disaster

Boris Kagarlitsky 23 September 2022

About a week ago, in an interview with Evgenia Rodionova, I explained in great detail why, from a military and economic point of view, mobilization in modern Russia is not only pointless, but also harmful. After listening to this, Evgenia summed up: therefore, there will be no mobilization. I did not agree with this conclusion. It is useless, senseless, harmful, this is not an argument in our country. If a decision is crazy, it does not mean that it will not be accepted. Rather the opposite. Alas, I was right. Decision is made. As usual, its consequences - neither technically nor politically - no one was even going to calculate in advance. Now we will learn all this in an experimental mode. The experiment is large-scale, they put it all over the country. On us. Although in general the results are quite predictable and predicted long ago. The problem of mobilization remains technically insoluble. The economy must prepare for mobilization for years. As well as military production. If this is not the case, then any emergency measures increase problems, create disorganization and chaos. The positive military effect under the circumstances will be minimal, but the negative consequences, although they cannot be fully calculated now, will be very significant. The military and administrative apparatuses are not ready for mobilization, it will take months to solve problems with weapons, training, transporting people and coordinating new units, and chaos on the railways and disorganization of economic work will come much faster.

The scale of the problems is well understood by representatives of the power bloc and regional authorities, who tried to fend off this undertaking with all their might. The only trouble is that a fair portion of politicians and officials sincerely believe that it is worth pronouncing the magic word "mobilization" and everything will turn out by itself. True, they have already pronounced the “import substitution” spell many times - without any effect. But that doesn't seem to teach them anything.

At the moment, regarding mobilization, it is only clear that nothing is clear. And this is not about ordinary citizens, but about politicians and administrators who rule the country. Neither the real scale of the mobilization measures, nor the ways in which they will be carried out, are clear to either officials or the military, and, most likely, to Putin himself.

The authorities reassure us that the mobilization will be partial. But where and when they are going to stop, no one says, because they cannot say. Whether the mobilization will be partial or total, it depends solely on how events will develop and how far it will be possible to fulfill at least some decisions of the authorities in practice. This is just the problem. So far, instead of crowds of militant citizens rushing to enroll in the army, we see long lines of cars at border crossings. But not everyone will want and be able to leave the country, and they threaten to close the border. The national game of cat and mouse begins. The authorities are catching, the people are hiding. The result will be determined by the ratio of forces and skills of the parties. Send to the front as many people as they can get. They will send it wherever they can. They deal with collateral damage the best they can. That is, no way.

The mass consciousness of Russians is already well trained to understand: there is no point in believing the comforting reservations of those in power. They say that the mobilization is partial, that students will not be called up, that laws and regulations will be observed. But the same people informed us a week before the announcement of mobilization that there was no question of such a decision. As for the laws and regulations, we can completely rewrite them in a few minutes. And even then, only if someone wants to look back at such trifles as legal norms.

Since we are forbidden to comment on military actions under the threat of criminal prosecution for discrediting the army, we will not touch on this topic. Let it remain for patriotic bloggers, to whom the laws of the Russian Federation do not apply in principle. But just the socio-economic and political damage from the events launched now will be enough to pretty shake the country. Moreover, without any serious hopes that this damage will be justified in any way.

As for society, we will see its reaction in the near future. However, it is already clear that putting weapons into the hands of hundreds of thousands of people whose loyalty is at least not guaranteed is not a good idea.

In the stories of the American science fiction writer Henry Kuttner about the Hogben family, there is an episode when a man, offended by people, decided to punch all of humanity in the face. The Hogbens complied with his request by creating a machine that would multiply him for a few seconds. But one of the family members climbed into this car first, spat in the face of all mankind and put a stick into people's hands. The one who climbed into the car after him received a blow to the head from all mankind.

In general, you should not first spit in people's faces, and then put heavy objects in their hands.


Links Search