 |
|
Mexico: a period of struggle and instability The other factor was the number of social programmes introduced by AMLO, that benefitted millions of people, mainly the most needy. More than 25 million families benefited from at least one social programme. In addition, his wage policy, which increased the minimum wage, meant that the wages of the working class recovered some of their purchasing power. In some sectors, such as among teachers and health workers employed by the state, he promised a minimum wage of 16,000 pesos, well above the previous minimum wage. These were the bases on which a certain social peace was established. The current mobilisations are extremely interesting, not only because of how widespread they are, but also because they are directed at the policy of Claudia Sheinbaum's government. First, the government put forward a reform of the ISSSTE (pension laws) whereby a series of regulations would be modified so that FOVISSSTE – the state agency offering housing loans to government employees – could build housing for workers, which meant increasing the pension contributions for workers who earn more than 10 UMAs [Units of Measurement and Update, a base measure used to calculate the number of pesos paid in taxes and other contributions]. This proposal was later modified so that, among other things, this change in pension contributions would only be paid by political appointees and not by rank and file workers. However, this roused the teachers of the CNTE [Democratic Teachers’ Union], who opposed the changes and took up the slogan of repealing the 2007 reform of the ISSSTE Law, which eliminated the previous pension system and replaced it by individual accounts, retirement after 30 years of work, and the ceiling of 28 years of service for women. In addition, workers’ savings were passed into the hands of private companies – so called Retirement Funds Administrators (AFOREs). The government claimed that the current changes would not affect the workers, before withdrawing the reform, but the teachers rightly stayed on the streets. They are planning to escalate their struggle until the 2007 reform itself is overturned. The government says it is open to discussion and has asked them not to go on strike, but the workers have remained steadfast in their struggle. Alongside this, workers at the University of Chapingo are currently on strike, demanding a salary increase and retirement plans for the teachers. Although the authorities have done everything possible to derail the mobilisation and have refused to sit down to negotiate, the teachers have remained firm in their struggle. In Zacatecas, workers at the Autonomous University of Zacatecas (UAZ) have also gone on strike. 33 campuses have stopped all teaching, from secondary to postgraduate level. The central demand is a 15 percent wage increase, while the Rector's Office is offering only four percent with an additional one percent in other benefits – this is clearly an insult to unionised workers. The strike has called for major mobilisations in which other social and political organisations have taken part. At the time of writing, this struggle had been ongoing for 20 days and the workers continued to resist. The mood among the students is also significant. They have occupied campuses and have mobilised across different schools for different demands. For example, there are strikes and mobilisations at the University of Puebla. In Yucatán, the campus of the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) in Mérida has also been occupied. At the National Polytechnic Institute (IPN), the Interdisciplinary Professional Unit in Engineering and Advanced Technologies (UPIITA) has gone on strike, and in the upper secondary schools of UNAM there have been stoppages and mobilisations calling for university canteens amongst other demands. We cannot yet say that there has been a radical change in the mood among workers and youth, but what we can say is that we are entering a different period, where significant shifts are being prepared in different sectors of society. Among the working class, there are economic and political demands being raised that can only be won by wresting them from the bosses or directly from the government. Unrest is also steadily accumulating among the youth – this is not strange, as young people cannot see a future for themselves under capitalism. On 8 March, 200,000 young women took to the streets of Mexico City and there were demonstrations in more than 20 cities. Young people’s demands, such as for subsidised canteens, fall on deaf ears in the schools, and in the streets they are met with ceaseless violence. It is the youth who are on the receiving end of the worst that this system has to offer and it will not be a matter of coincidence when they lead the strongest mobilisations in the coming period. Trump accelerates the contradictions As we have explained in other articles, Trump's arrival at the head of the US government is posing a number of complicated challenges for the Mexican government. We do not need to repeat what we have already explained elsewhere. Rather, we must analyse how the Trump administration will accelerate the contradictions already present in the Mexican government. Since Trump took office, the situation has become more unstable around the globe. He has attempted to put an end to military conflicts such as those in Ukraine and the Middle East, using his unique mixture of threats, outrageous statements and negotiations, this is by no means proving as simple as he had promised before his election. Meanwhile, he is stirring up a series of economic and political conflicts. US policy now revolves around a central question that Trump seeks to resolve: US imperialism has been weakened amidst the rise of other world powers and needs to strengthen itself. Trump aims to recover the US’ industrial capacity by using tariffs to bring companies back to the United States. The focus of his tariff policy is, of course, China. He shares with the rest of the ruling class the desire to clip the wings of Chinese capitalism, to eliminate it as a competitor. But he also has aims in the ‘backyard’ of US imperialism in the western hemisphere. He aims to safeguard the US’ zones of influence by applying greater pressure to Mexico and Canada, in order to make them completely servile under the threat of greater tariffs. He seeks to withdraw from regions where the US previously had committed economic and military support, abandoning the European Union as well as Ukraine to their fate. And finally, Trump wants to fight to keep regions or strategic sectors that serve US capitalism’s goals – by recovering the Panama Canal, taking Greenland and developing strategic domestic industries like microchips and artificial intelligence. From this stems his entire policy of attacks against Mexico. Although the current government is saying that it is going to fight “with dignity” to defend sovereignty, in reality it has given in on everything that Trump has asked for: it has moved 10,000 troops from the National Guard to the northern border, it has transformed its policy against the drug trade – no longer using a light touch as it did before – it has sent 29 drug lords as trophies for the US administration, and it has toughened its tariff policy against Chinese goods. What US imperialism wanted, it got. The governments of AMLO and Claudia Sheinbaum never aimed to break the country’s dependence on the US. On the contrary, their policy has been to maintain this link. First AMLO and now Claudia are doing everything possible to “take advantage” of “business” with US imperialism. The infrastructure works developed in the last six years, including greater transport connection with manufacturing zones near the US border and more bridges over the Rio Grande, have had precisely this aim. For a while it seemed that this project connected with the international environment of economic relocation (or nearshoring); capital came to invest, taking advantage of Mexico's geographical position and its trade agreements with the US, so that the goods of the new firms could enter the US market without paying taxes. Now this is about to go down the drain. The so-called ‘Mexican miracle’ may turn into its opposite if tariffs are eventually imposed. [Note: this article was initially published on 27 March, after Trump had suspended the 25 percent tariffs initially imposed on Canada and Mexico on many key products, although for others those tariffs remain in place. While not subject to the standard 10 percent tariffs introduced in April, many commodities from Mexico including steel and aluminium continue to be subject to tariffs.] The pressure being exerted by US imperialism, which has resulted in constant tariff negotiations with the Trump administration, has brought with it increased uncertainty. Companies are therefore unsure whether to invest, wait and see, or even to withdraw investments and repatriate capital to the USA, or wait. There is a feeling of instability among those capitalists with interests in Mexico, and this is not good for the economy, which has been stagnating for a period now. In addition, Claudia Sheinbaum is seeking to substitute goods that are currently sourced from China with automotive components assembled in Mexico itself. She has also imposed tariffs on clothing from China. She has said she will maintain a tough stance on China, despite the fact that it is the US that has kicked her in the mouth! It sounds like a joke: it is the Americans who are doing everything they can to undermine her, but she has told them that she will defend the business she has with them, no matter what. We do not believe that the alternative is to tie Mexico to a different imperialist country, but Sheinbaum’s total surrender to US imperialism is striking. Ultimately, the economic question is not the only factor, although it is indeed the main one. There is also the pressure being placed on migrants in the US to return to Mexico, with over 19,000 having returned already. In addition, there are the almost one million Latinos who are in Mexico because they are waiting for a humanitarian visa to cross the northern border. This means that if tariffs go ahead and companies start leaving the country, unemployment will intensify. Finally, we have the role of the Mexican drug cartels, six of which have been declared terrorist organisations by the US government. As we have said elsewhere, it is difficult to conceive of an armed intervention capable of putting an end to them. Such an intervention would cause an outburst from the masses against such a policy. What is clear is that this is a cudgel in the hands of the Americans that can be used at any time it pleases to beat the Mexican government over the head. This cannot be called the ‘dignified treatment’ of ‘equals’. Such words conceal the true nature of the relation between the USA and Mexico – that of master and slave. Times of struggle and instability Claudia's government has scored some partial victories, such as delaying tariffs for two months, and this has earned her increased popularity. 80 percent of Mexicans support her and there is now a pact – essentially a popular front – between the bosses and the government, but this does not guarantee stability of any kind. On the contrary, the strength and confidence that the government once enjoyed is going to erode rapidly. This will not happen overnight, nor will it happen in a linear fashion, but we are entering a period in which the class struggle will become increasingly visible on the streets, and the working class and the youth will be present. These struggles will not only be justified, but will have every obligation to redouble their efforts in order to succeed. As the pressures of imperialism increase and the consequences of its aggressive policies are felt, the Mexican government will have two options. On the one hand, it could take a more radical stance towards the US and mobilise in the streets to prevent factory closures and layoffs, calling on workers to defend jobs through strikes, as Cárdenas did. This is certainly the least likely path. On the other hand, it could continue to give in to whatever imperialism wants, while strengthening the government's link with the national bourgeoisie. This link will manifest itself in government support for the capitalists at all levels, giving them tax breaks, investing in venture capital, protecting their investments, etc. In the medium term, the bourgeoisie will also demand counter-reforms that defend their interests against the workers. We want to fight against imperialism and its attacks, and we will be on the side of the workers and youth in the struggle for their demands. We understand that the only way to seriously fight against imperialism is to fight against capitalism as well. If Claudia Sheinbaum takes the Cardenist road, we will critically support her, but if she chooses the alternative of allying herself more and more with the national bourgeoisie and giving in to imperialism, we will not support her and we will say clearly that this road will only lead her to defeat. Regardless of which path this government follows, the task of communists is very clear: we must continue to gather our strength for the formation of the revolutionary party, to fight with our class and prepare the cadres for future developments in the class struggle. We communists are internationalists and we believe that the North American working class is our ally in the fight against capitalism and imperialism in the region, and thus for the establishment of a union of socialist states in North America and the world. https://marxist.com/mexico-a-period-of-struggle-and-instability.htm Back |
 Links Search |
||||||
|
|||||||
