 |
|
War Looms Over Kashmir Various armed groups opposing Indian rule have operated in Indian-occupied Kashmir for decades, mostly targeting Indian authorities in the past. However, the killing of 26 tourists—an attack on civilians of this nature—is unprecedented and has been condemned by both Kashmiris and Indians alike. Indian government agencies claim that the attack was carried out by the Pakistan-sponsored group The Resistance Front (TRF). Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry, on the other hand, denied the existence of such an organization, or of others named by Indian authorities, claiming they are fabrications. There is a long history of claims, counterclaims, false propaganda, and disinformation between the two states, particularly concerning the occupied Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) region. Pakistan claims to possess conclusive evidence that India is supporting terrorist organizations within Pakistan. In turn, India accuses Pakistan of sponsoring terrorism in Kashmir. In a recent interview, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister even admitted that both Pakistan and the United States had previously supported terrorist organizations. Fertile Ground Grievances and dire conditions faced by oppressed communities in this region—as well as in other impoverished areas—are exploited by regional states and international powers like the US to organize militant groups and foster terrorism for their own strategic interests. The horrific levels of repression and blatantly anti-democratic actions by Indian authorities in Indian-occupied Kashmir (IOK) have created fertile ground for the emergence of various terrorist organizations and violent outbursts. In 2019, after the Modi regime abolished Jammu and Kashmir’s autonomy and made them central government run ‘union territories’, a complete lockdown was imposed on the region, including a full shutdown of internet and mobile communications. A strict curfew was implemented, with orders to shoot on sight. Over 4,000 politicians and leading activists, including human rights defenders, were imprisoned. This lockdown was followed by a full-scale military occupation of major government buildings and streets. Tens of thousands of military and paramilitary personnel were deployed prior to the government’s announcement on 5 August 2019, revoking the special status of J&K. The local population, including even right-wing Kashmiri politicians—often seen as Indian government puppets—had no say in the decision. Removing Article 370 and ending Kashmir’s special status had long been a core propaganda point for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), helping Narendra Modi secure victory in the May 2019 Indian elections. The election campaign was heavily centred on Kashmir and anti-Muslim rhetoric, backed by the fascistic Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). This trend continues to this day. Even the US and EU came under pressure to ban visas for Modi due to his direct links to the brutal killings of Muslims during the 2002 Gujarat riots. Current Home Affairs Minister Amit Shah and various other figures in the Modi government are well-known for their adherence to Hindutva ideology—an agenda aimed at transforming India into a Hindu-only nation by erasing Muslim influence. The National Register of Citizens (NRC), introduced in 2003, and the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA), passed in 2019, have systematically marginalized Muslim populations across India. Amit Shah openly spoke about deporting “illegal immigrants,” referring to Muslims who failed to register, and about creating mass detention camps reminiscent of those seen during World War II. Following the Kashmir lockdown, the implementation of the Citizenship Act resulted in over 2 million Assamese people—mostly Muslims—losing their right to Indian nationality in this border state on the north-eastern side of India. The fear and uncertainty now faced by the Muslim population in India is the most severe since the 1947 partition, which saw carnage rooted in Hindu-Muslim violence. Elite Manoeuvres The anti-Muslim propaganda of the Modi government has provided an opportunity for the Pakistani government to portray Modi’s India as “anti-Muslim” and to whip up patriotic support for itself. But the current Pakistani government is among the most brutal towards its own population and is also the weakest in Pakistan’s history. Scandals and blatant corruption involving previous prime ministers have led to repeated elections and constant political manoeuvring among the elite for power. Public trust in the political class is at an all-time low, as reflected in the February 2024 elections, which resulted in no single party securing a majority to form a government. The election itself was marred by allegations of vote rigging, intimidation of opposition, and widespread corruption. Shehbaz Sharif’s appointment as Prime Minister was the result of opportunistic manoeuvring and the formation of a weak coalition of major parties united against Imran Khan’s PTI, which had previously been in power. PTI’s strong “anti-corruption” rhetoric helped it gain significant support from urban youth and the rural poor. The struggle for power—referred to by Imran Khan as “daylight robbery”—led to intense repression of PTI members and other opposition forces. Khan was imprisoned, while human rights defenders and opposition activists were either jailed or banned from political activity. Sindhi and Baloch activists, particularly those advocating for national liberation, have been labelled as threats to national security and subjected to repression. Corruption among the political elites in both India and Pakistan is rampant. Both governments have implemented policies that have devastated the lives of workers, peasants, and the poor. They frequently hide behind patriotic rhetoric and claims of “defending the nation” to rally the very masses they continue to exploit. The Kashmir conflict has consistently been used—by past and current governments—to consolidate power and build support, particularly during times of domestic weakness and widespread opposition. Pakistan’s extremely fragile government is using the possibility of conflict and war at its borders to tighten its grip on power. The current administration fears its own population to such an extent that, when protests erupted in November last year, it locked down the entire area around parliament, blockaded all roads, and imposed a complete mobile network blackout. Modi, on the other hand, enjoys relative political stability primarily due to one factor: the lack of a credible opposition. The Indian National Congress (INC), supported by various communist parties, has been incapable of offering a viable alternative to Modi’s policies. Once the dominant political force in India, the INC is no longer a truly national party, having fragmented and now reliant on regional parties in several states. However, the relative growth of the Indian economy—especially in the context of global instability—has enabled the Modi government to retain support from the country’s large middle class and much of the capitalist class. In contrast, Pakistan’s economy has been in free fall. IMF loan with harsh conditions, including severe restrictions on labour rights, and Chinese investments under the Belt and Road Initiative have helped Pakistan’s elite maintain their rule—at the expense of worsening conditions for the broader population. Today, more than half of Pakistan’s population lives in poverty. War Atmosphere The recent tensions between the two countries, triggered by the shooting incident, have already created a war-like atmosphere along the border, with military exchanging fire taking place. India has also test-fired missiles. Although a full-scale war is unlikely at this point, the conflict has the potential to spiral out of control. The Pakistani military—which effectively controls the government—is currently no match for India’s military. The balance that existed during previous conflicts in terms of economic and military capabilities no longer holds. India’s GDP has surpassed $4 trillion this year, giving it far greater strategic and military flexibility compared to Pakistan’s GDP of just $400 billion. In terms of military personnel and equipment, Pakistan cannot even match half the size of India’s forces. Nuclear capability is the only area where a balance of power is maintained between the two nations. However the conflict develops, it will test the limits of India’s military operations. The Kashmir Valley has historically challenged even the mightiest forces, largely due to its harsh environmental and geographic conditions—something that remains true to this day. The fast-changing global geopolitical landscape following Trump’s election in the US has created new complications for Pakistan, unlike in the past when the US fully backed its military and provided substantial subsidies. However, the broader geopolitical dynamics in Asia and South Asia are now dominated by Indo-China relations. The Chinese government’s decision to strengthen its support for Pakistan has further added to these complications. Last October, India reached an agreement with China regarding the Line of Actual Control (LAC), aimed at addressing their long-standing border dispute. However, this agreement may now be in jeopardy, which could have wider implications as the trade war between the US and China intensifies daily. Conflicts and clashes have become a global norm. Wars and unrest are taking place across Africa, the ongoing war in Ukraine continues, Palestinians face a genocidal assault, there is a looming threat of war or a possible attack on the Iranian regime, and tensions over Taiwan continue to escalate. All of this contributes to global instability. Trump’s trade war is only deepening global polarization. No region on the planet can be said to enjoy peace and harmony, despite the promises once made by capitalist leaders and their theorists. Capitalism, now facing a historic crisis, is attempting to survive by generating destruction, conflict, and the erosion of working and living conditions for the masses. The environmental catastrophe created by capitalism has further intensified the global scramble for resources, with many regions facing an existential crisis as a result of this chaos. India’s recent suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, signed in the 1960s, could devastate the lives of tens of thousands of farmers and poor communities in Pakistan. Meanwhile, changes in land laws by the Modi government aim to allow “Hindu capitalists” to take over land and establish business ventures in Kashmir. Previous legal protections had prevented such blatant exploitation. Breathtakingly beautiful areas of Kashmir—such as Pahalgam, where the recent attack occurred—are now vulnerable to capitalist plunder and forced demographic changes. For the vast Kashmiri Muslim population, this represents an existential threat. This, in turn, fuels the demand for an independent Kashmir. United Struggle So far, Kashmiri Muslims have not turned against the Hindus and other ethnic groups living in the region. However, the so-called “Shah/Modi method”—inciting ethnic riots to further the Hindutva agenda—could provoke divisions and escalate reactionary violence. A united struggle against the Indian regime, while also standing firmly against the repressive Pakistani state and other capitalist vultures, is essential to secure rights and dignity for all people in the region. Building such a struggle may seem unimaginable in the current climate of deep divisions and heightened tensions. But there is no alternative. Appeals must be made to the workers and toiling masses across India to unite in a common struggle against the repressive regime and in defence of democratic rights, including the national rights of all minority communities. A similar appeal should also be made to the working class in Pakistan—and in China. However, the Communist Parties in India—the CPI and CPI(M)—have shown no vision or program for such a united movement. In the face of potential devastation for Kashmiris, they have instead retreated into slogans about a “united India,” urging people to rally behind national unity. Their utter failure lies in their inability to lead any real struggle and their continued defence of the Congress Party for narrow electoral gains. The continued existence of reactionary governments and relentless propaganda, combined with the absence of a united mass struggle, has led to the fragmentation of the region into various parts with differing interests and levels of national consciousness. The authorities are actively stoking ethnic and religious tensions, further deepening divisions. However, this cannot be used as an excuse to ignore or dismiss the national rights of Kashmiris, whether in the Indian, Pakistani or Chinese parts of Kashmir, as communist parties have done at times. While firmly defending all democratic rights—including freedom of religion, the right not to follow any religion, the right to citizenship, and freedom of speech—for all people, we must also uphold the national rights of all oppressed nationalities. While standing firm in opposition to capitalist war and we should aim to build a united struggle to win these rights. Oppressed Sindhi workers have more in common with the workers and oppressed people in Kashmir, Assam, and other parts of India, Pakistan, and China than they do with their own capitalist rulers. It is through such united struggles that a real challenge can be mounted against regimes that today may seem unchangeable and all-powerful. The development of a mass movement can demonstrate what is truly potentially the mightiest force in the region: the working class, the peasants, and the oppressed masses united. This is the force that can counter and defeat the reactionary ideas that have taken hold among sections of the population. It would also raise the question of how resources in the region should be shared—among the people living there rather than being plundered by capitalist vultures. Voluntary socialist confederation of nations in the region will make sure that all cultural, language and national rights are safeguarded while the resources and planned and shared for the benefit of all. Unless capitalist rule is collectively challenged, such a unifying force cannot be built. That is why the Committee for a Workers’ International (CWI) argues for the need to build a socialist alternative in all parts of Jammu and Kashmir and beyond, and to link these struggles together to put an end to the suffering and exploitation that capitalism imposes on the masses. https://www.socialistworld.net/2025/05/01/war-looms-over-kashmir/ Back |
 Links Search |
||||||
|
|||||||
